Capital
Prediction Markets Are Accurate
Marginal Revolution · Oct 23, 2026 · 7:18 AM ET
No surprise to me but a new paper looks at the forecast accuracy of over one million prediction questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and the forecasting platform Metaculus. A virtue of the new analysis is that it covers many different areas from business to elections to geo-politics. An event predicted to happen p% of the […] The post Prediction Markets Are Accurate appeared first on...
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Rules judge: Capital item; Topics: small business, policy; Source: Marginal Revolution.
Builder score 67
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